o'dowd's failure to trade

Dan O'Dowd made a buttload of trades over his first several years as GM.  In fact, over his first four years as GM, he made 62 (!) trades.  Over the next five years (2004-08) he made only 35 trades.  Seems like he figured out that rampant, sometimes indiscriminate trading didn't really do anybody any damn good.  So there's that...which is nice.  


But now, O'Dowd doesn't really like to make trades, it seems, and I wonder if that's going to end up costing the Rockies.  Last year, he traded Jeff Baker for a low-A reliever (Alberto Alburquerque!).  Baker had at least moderate trade value during the offseason and spring training, but O'Dowd just sat on his hands until July 2nd, when he finally moved Baker.


In 2009, Garrett Atkins had his worst year in the bigs since 2003 (when he only played in 19 games); he was worth -0.4 WAR (or Wins Above Replacement), meaning that he was worth less than a replacement-level player.  His production was worth -$2 million to the Rockies despite being paid $7.05 million.  This is just the next year in an ongoing trend; as his salary increases, his value to the team decreases.  From a high value of $22 million in 2006 (while being paid a very team-friendly 300 grand), his dollar value to the team has gone to $9.3 million in 2007, $2.6 million in 2008 (with a salary of $4.4 mil), and last year's -$2 million FAIL.  And now he's going to be traded or perhaps just non-tendered.  Well, at least they're not going to keep paying him, but it sure seems like they could have gotten something for him...maybe another low-A reliever.  That would be something.  Oh wait...they had to keep him around so he could start all four Rockies playoff games.  Again...FAIL.


In 2009, Brad Hawpe was an All-Star.  He had a great first half, going .320/.396/.577...and then completely forgot how to hit.  After the All-Star Break, he hit .240/.370/.442 with his typical below-average outfield defense.  He ended the season getting benched in the playoffs.  Awesome.  Now, the Rockies got good value out of Hawpe in 2009.  His salary was $5.5 million, and he was worth $5.8.  But next year his salary goes up to $7.5 million (with a $10 million option for 2011!), and his age goes up to 31.  Players don't typically get better past their late 20s, so we're most likely looking at the beginning of Hawpe's decline phase.  He has some value as a somewhat reasonably priced hitter, which means the time is now for the Rockies to move him.  This is especially true because...


In 2009, Dexter Fowler, a 23-year-old rookie, finished the year at 0.7 WAR and a dollar value of $3.3 million.  Carlos Gonzalez, despite his slow start and only starting 70 games, finished the season with 2.4 WAR and a dollar value of $10.7 million (he was 23 all season as well).  Seth Smith, in only 76 starts, finished with 2.7 WAR and a dollar value of $12.1 million.  Oh, and he's the old man of this crew as he turned 27 at the end of the season.  Those three players combined made just over a million dollars this year (I had a hard time finding CarGo's salary data, but I assume it's similar to the $400K each for Smith and Fowler.


I cannot think of any reason why O'Dowd would even hesitate to consider trading Hawpe.  As Jabberwocky puts it (over at purplerow.com), Hawpe has much more value right now as a trade asset than he does in the Rockies outfield.  I would take it one step further, saying that Hawpe continuing to play for the Rockies will only inhibit the growth of their young, talented outfielders as he'll be taking playing time from at least one of them every time he takes the field (which he would do a lot, as teams are generally loath to pay guys $7.5 million to pinch-hit and make spot starts.  Not recognizing that Atkins needed to go cost the Rockies (not a ton, but it cost them).  Making the same mistake with Hawpe could be much worse, costing the team money, wins, and the development of younger, more valuable players.